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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."