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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.