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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still