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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "serious repercussions" in August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce negotiations, the former president eventually imposed major sanctions on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' representatives without Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would in practice favor Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the plan in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, like ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a damaged area of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the already split oblasts of these areas, the initiative would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unable to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that are a key impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make future conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current large number soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan places no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Every Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal sets no obligation that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should anyone believe Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive joint military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details include unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate parallel deal according to sources would grant the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet different from a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not